Freitag, 5. März 2010

Gibt es mehr Erdbeben als sonst?


- Nein.

Verständlicherweise fragen sich das viele zurzeit - erst die Beben in Haiti und Chile und jetzt anscheinend eines nach dem anderen in Taiwan und anderswo. In Amerika geht gerade die Angst vor dem "Big One" um, ein befürchtetes Riesenerdbeben im Bereich des San-Andreas-Grabens. Aber ist das wirklich so? "Rächt" sich die Erde an den Menschen?

Glücklicherweise kann man Erdbeben einfach zählen, also brauchen wir uns bloß die Tabelle angucken:




Die Tabelle wird jeden Tag aktualisiert. Beim Hochrechnen kommt man auf die Zahlen, die ich mit Paint rechts daneben gekrakelt habe. Streng genommen funktioniert das Hochrechnen hier nicht, da sich durch die Abnahme der Proben die Varianzen und Konfidenzintervalle zu sehr verschieben - ein Vergleich mit einzelnen Monaten wäre vielleicht besser. Aber für diesen Punkt reicht es aus, da zumindest bei 7.0-7.9 kein stark erhöhtes Auftreten festzustellen ist. Ein paar Prozent über dem langjährigen Mittel, aber nicht all zu viel. In den 90ern gibt es noch mehr Abweichungen (allein 3 Jahre mit 18 Beben in der Kategorie), siehe hier.

Die anderen Kategorien sind stärker erhöht, das liegt jedoch an den Nachbeben in der jeweiligen Region. In den vergangenen Tagen fanden allein 214 mittelschwache Nachbeben in Chile statt, daher fällt die unterste Zahl aus dem Rahmen. So viele Nachbeben sind im globalen Maßstab in der Tat eher selten, kommen aber an den Anden häufiger vor. Viele kleine Nachbeben sind immerhin besser als ein großes.

Fassen wir zusammen: das Ganze ist, abgesehen von den Nachbeben, selektive Wahrnehmung. Die Zunahme der Erdbeben ist bisher nicht statistisch signifikant.

Abgesehen davon hängt die Zerstörung oft auch nur sehr lose mit der Magnitude zusammen. Ein 7.0-Erdbeben wie auf Haiti findet mindestens jeden Monat irgendwo auf der Erde statt - heute wie früher. Chile war ein Jahrhundertereignis, wenn auch mit viel weniger Opfern.

Ein Erdbeben kann weitere in der gleichen Region oder entlang der Platte triggern, aber nicht über den halben Erdball verteilt, zumindest ist der Einfluss äußerst gering.

Was sich auf jeden Fall im Vergleich zu früher geändert hat, ist folgendes:

1. Urbanisierung - mehr Menschen wohnen in erdbebengefährdeten Städten.
2. Globale Medienaufmerksamkeit - wäre das Erdbeben in Chile vor 20 Jahren gewesen, hätte es keinen interessiert. Heutzutage haben wir ein stärkeres globales Bewusstsein (aber auch mehr Sensationsgier der Medien)

Da liegt der Hase begraben.

55 Kommentare:

  1. Deine Hochrechnung ist ja doch deutlich über dem langjährigen Mittel. liegt das an den vielen Nachbeben der beiden Großbeben?

    Btw, was hältst du von der aktuellen Story in Science über das Sichuan-Beben und den Stausee?

    AntwortenLöschen
  2. Ich merke gerade, dass ich mir vorhin einen ziemlichen Mist in dem Artikel zusammengestammelt habe, ich war wohl irgendwie müde ^^

    Die Hochrechnung ist insofern problematisch, da sie von einer gleichbleibenden Rate ausgeht, die mit Sicherheit nicht so passieren wird. Man könnte sogar argumentieren, dass durch die Erdbeben soviel Spannung abgebaut wurde, dass es nach der Nachbebenphase für den Rest des Jahres sogar eher zu weniger Beben kommen wird. Dafür kenn ich mich mit dem Thema aber nicht ausreichend aus.

    Ich habe die Hochrechnung trotzdem mit reingenommen, da ich zeigen wollte, dass trotz der subjektiv erdbebenreichen letzten Wochen die Abweichung nicht wirklich groß ist. Liest man sich einige Forenposts und Nachrichtenseiten durch, bekommt man den Eindruck, es sei auf einmal ein Vielfaches des normalen Durchschnitts eingetroffen. Leider kam diese Intention beim ersten Verfassen nicht wirklich durch.

    Die aktuelle Science habe ich noch nicht gelesen, werde demnächst mal reinschauen.

    AntwortenLöschen
  3. Hello. magnificent job. I didn't imagine this. That is a fantastic story. Thanks!
    My website: Communitymed.Org

    AntwortenLöschen
  4. I used to be suggested this website by my cousin.

    I am not positive whether or not this post is

    written via him as no one else know

    such distinct

    about my problem. You are wonderful!

    Thanks!
    Look into my homepage :: cristianievangelici.info

    AntwortenLöschen
  5. I have been surfing online more than three hours
    today, yet I never found any interesting article

    like yours. It’s pretty worth enough for me.
    In my opinion, if all website owners and bloggers
    made good content as you did, the net will be a

    lot more useful than ever before.
    Feel free to surf my site choral

    AntwortenLöschen
  6. Definitely, what a splendid site and illuminating posts, I definitely
    will bookmark your

    website.All the Best!
    Here is my web blog take

    AntwortenLöschen
  7. This is really interesting, You're a very skilled blogger. I have joined your feed and

    look forward to seeking more of your magnificent post. Also, I've shared

    your site in my social networks!
    my web site :: free classified listings Paterna

    AntwortenLöschen
  8. Hi there! I know this is kinda off topic but I'd figured I'd ask.

    Would you be interested in trading links or maybe guest

    authoring a blog article or vice-versa? My blog goes over a


    lot of the same subjects as yours and I think we could greatly
    benefit from each other. If you

    happen to be interested feel free to shoot me an e-mail.
    I look forward to

    hearing from you! Wonderful blog by the way!
    Here is my weblog :: west palm beach cheap hotels

    AntwortenLöschen
  9. hey there and thanks on your info - I have

    definitely picked up something new from proper
    here. I did however experience a few technical points the
    usage of

    this site, as I experienced to reload the website a lot of occasions previous to I
    may get it to load properly. I

    had been brooding about in case

    your web hosting is OK? No longer that I am complaining, but sluggish loading cases times will sometimes affect your placement in google and could harm your high-

    quality score if advertising and ***********
    Feel free to visit my weblog - Highly Recommended site

    AntwortenLöschen
  10. Hiya, I am really glad I have found this information.

    Nowadays bloggers publish just

    about gossips and internet and this is actually irritating.
    A good web site with exciting content, that's what I need. Thanks for

    keeping this web site, I'll be visiting it. Do you do newsletters?

    Cant

    find it.
    Here is my blog - http://polyomino.net/testing/wiki/index.php?title=User:WanettaMiller85

    AntwortenLöschen
  11. Would you be taken with exchanging

    hyperlinks?
    Have a look at my web page ... babymakes11.blogspot.ru

    AntwortenLöschen
  12. Attractive component of content. I simply stumbled

    upon your weblog and in accession capital to claim that
    I get in

    fact enjoyed account your weblog posts. Any way
    I will be subscribing to your feeds and even I success you get

    right of entry to persistently fast.

    Also visit my web blog http://gambianewsonline.blogspot.com/
    Feel free to surf my weblog ; mfc 3220c

    AntwortenLöschen
  13. What i don't understood is in truth how you're


    now not really a lot more smartly-favored than you might be now.

    You're very intelligent. You understand thus considerably relating to this topic, made me

    in my view imagine it from numerous numerous angles. Its like men and women don't seem
    to be

    interested unless it is one thing to accomplish with

    Lady gaga! Your own stuffs nice.

    At all times handle it up!

    My site ... wiki.gafl.hs.kr
    Feel free to visit my webpage : equity index futures

    AntwortenLöschen
  14. I think this is among the most important information
    for me. And i'm glad

    reading your article. But should remark on some general things, The site style is

    ideal, the articles is really excellent : D. Good job, cheers

    My blog :: cyberwizard.de
    My webpage :: irish spain forum Albir

    AntwortenLöschen
  15. hello!,I like your writing very much! share we communicate
    more about your article on AOL? I need a specialist on this area to solve my problem.
    Maybe that's you! Looking forward to see you.

    Take a look at my homepage; tmt-en.dset-software.com
    My web page: price car spain

    AntwortenLöschen
  16. Great article! That is the type of information that are meant
    to be shared across the internet. Shame on Google
    for no longer positioning this put up higher!
    Come on over and seek advice from my site .

    Thanks =)

    Here is my page - pointclick windows comparison Shopping method

    AntwortenLöschen
  17. Superb blog! Do you have any tips for aspiring writers? I'm planning to start my own site soon but I'm a little lost
    on everything. Would you suggest starting with a free platform like Wordpress or go for a
    paid option? There are so many choices out there that I'm completely overwhelmed .. Any recommendations? Many thanks!

    Look at my web page; internet marketing hong kong

    AntwortenLöschen
  18. Fantastic site. Plenty of helpful information here.

    I am sending it to several pals ans additionally sharing in delicious.

    And naturally, thanks on your sweat!

    Check out my web site; http://wikinterpret.org/wiki/index.php?title=User:CatalinaH

    AntwortenLöschen
  19. Hmm is anyone else encountering problems with the images on this
    blog loading? I'm trying to figure out if its a problem on my end or if it's the blog.
    Any feedback would be greatly appreciated.

    Also visit my homepage; smoking cds

    AntwortenLöschen
  20. I like the helpful info you supply to your articles.
    I will bookmark your blog and test once more right here regularly.
    I am reasonably sure I will be informed plenty of new stuff proper right
    here! Good luck for the next!

    My site ... auto insurance

    AntwortenLöschen
  21. Hi there! I just wanted to ask if you ever have any trouble with hackers?
    My last blog (wordpress) was hacked and I ended up losing many months of
    hard work due to no backup. Do you have any methods to stop hackers?


    Feel free to visit my web-site ... Food Supplements

    AntwortenLöschen
  22. Post writing is also a excitement, if you be familiar with then you can write
    or else it is difficult to write.

    my site - opt email marketing

    AntwortenLöschen
  23. You made some good points there. I did a search on the

    topic and found mainly

    folks will have the same opinion with your blog.
    Here is my homepage :: http://thetruthwillout.blogspot.co.uk

    AntwortenLöschen
  24. As I web-site possessor I believe the content matter here is rattling wonderful ,
    appreciate it for your hard work. You should keep it up forever!
    Good Luck.
    Feel free to surf my web-site : http://pacificoutfitters.com/

    AntwortenLöschen
  25. Have you ever thought about creating an ebook or guest authoring on other

    websites? I have a blog based upon on the same subjects you


    discuss and would really like to have you share some stories/information.

    I know my subscribers would value your work.
    If you are even remotely interested, feel free to

    shoot me an e-mail.
    Also see my site :: Ccsl.ime.usp.br

    AntwortenLöschen
  26. What i don't understood is in fact how you are

    not actually much more neatly-favored than you may be right now. You're
    so intelligent. You know thus significantly in

    relation to this subject, made me

    in my opinion imagine it from numerous numerous angles.
    Its like women and men are not

    fascinated until it’s something to accomplish with
    Woman gaga! Your personal stuffs excellent. Always care for it up!


    Here is my web page: ffwilhelmsburg.ff.funpic.de

    AntwortenLöschen
  27. What i do not realize is in reality how you are no longer
    actually much more well-liked than you might be now. You're very intelligent. You recognize therefore significantly with regards to this topic, produced me individually imagine it from numerous varied angles. Its like men and women aren't involved until
    it is one thing to do with Girl gaga! Your personal stuffs great.

    Always deal with it up!

    Feel free to visit my site; coffee capital of america

    AntwortenLöschen
  28. You could definitely see your enthusiasm in the work you write.

    The world hopes for

    even more passionate writers like you who are not afraid to say how they believe.
    Always go after

    your heart.
    Here is my web blog : http://nigeness.blogspot.ru

    AntwortenLöschen
  29. This is really interesting, You are a very skilled blogger.
    I have joined your feed and

    look forward to seeking more of your great post. Also, I've shared

    your web site in my social networks!
    My webpage > militantmedicalnurse.blogspot.fr

    AntwortenLöschen
  30. I was wondering if you ever considered changing the structure of your

    site? Its very well written; I love what youve got to say.

    But maybe you could a little more in the way of content

    so people could connect with it better. Youve got an awful lot of text for only having 1
    or 2 images. Maybe you could space it out better?
    Feel free to surf my site : christkorner.com

    AntwortenLöschen
  31. If some one needs to be updated with hottest technologies
    afterward he must be pay a quick visit this web page and be up to date every day.


    Feel free to visit my web page - accupril 10mg

    AntwortenLöschen
  32. An outstanding share! I have just forwarded this onto a
    friend who had been doing a little research on this.

    And he in fact bought me dinner because I discovered it for him.
    .. lol. So allow me to reword this.... Thank YOU for the meal!
    ! But yeah, thanx for spending time to talk about
    this subject here on your web page.

    Review my site: effects hgh

    AntwortenLöschen
  33. Please let me know if you're looking for a article author for your weblog. You have some really good articles and I think I would be a good asset. If you ever want to take some of the load off, I'd
    really like to write some content for your blog in exchange for
    a link back to mine. Please shoot me an e-mail if
    interested. Kudos!

    my web site ... buy maleextra

    AntwortenLöschen
  34. I like the helpful information you provide in
    your articles. I will bookmark your blog and check again here
    frequently. I am quite sure I will learn many new stuff right here!
    Good luck for the next!

    Feel free to visit my web-site ... Http://Buysizegenetics.Eklablog.Com/Buy-Cheap-Sizegenetics-Online-A65224277

    AntwortenLöschen
  35. hello!,I like your writing very much! percentage we

    communicate more approximately your post

    on AOL? I need a specialist in this house to solve my

    problem. May be that's you! Having a look forward to peer you.

    Feel free to visit my blog post - http://socialfy.lbriones.com/

    AntwortenLöschen
  36. Hi, its fastidious paragraph concerning media
    print, we all be familiar with media is a great source of data.


    Also visit my webpage ... semen pills

    AntwortenLöschen
  37. This will control your hunger, stabilize blood sugar, and processed oils; the Paleo
    Diet is certainly a step in the right direction.

    Feel free to surf to my weblog :: momaroo.com

    AntwortenLöschen
  38. What's up, its good article about media print, we all be aware of media is a wonderful source of data.

    My web-site - penis enhancement pills

    AntwortenLöschen
  39. What's up, after reading this remarkable article i am also cheerful to share my experience here with colleagues.

    Also visit my weblog :: male sex enhancement pills

    AntwortenLöschen
  40. Its like you learn my thoughts! You seem to understand a lot approximately this, such
    as you wrote the ebook in it or something. I feel that you could do with a few p.

    c. to power the message house a bit, but instead of that, that is fantastic blog.
    A great read. I'll definitely be back.

    My blog post: www.carehomesoftware.info

    AntwortenLöschen
  41. Hi! I've been following your weblog for some time now and finally got the courage to go ahead and give you a shout out from Dallas Tx! Just wanted to say keep up the fantastic work!

    Here is my web page ... african mango facts

    AntwortenLöschen
  42. Cool blog! Is your theme custom made or did
    you download it from somewhere? A theme like yours with a few simple adjustements would really make my
    blog stand out. Please let me know where you got your design.
    Bless you

    Also visit my blog post ... best natural male enhancer

    AntwortenLöschen
  43. You're so awesome! I do not suppose I have read anything like this before. So good to discover somebody with some original thoughts on this subject. Seriously.. thank you for starting this up. This site is one thing that is required on the internet, someone with a bit of originality!

    My web-site; Things To Consider When Shopping For Vintage Clothing

    AntwortenLöschen
  44. Awesome things here. I'm very satisfied to peer your post. Thank you a lot and I am taking a look ahead to touch you. Will you kindly drop me a mail?

    Feel free to surf to my web-site - alta white

    AntwortenLöschen
  45. I am not certain the place you're getting your information, however great topic. I needs to spend a while finding out much more or understanding more. Thank you for great information I was looking for this info for my mission.

    My web page :: thyroid problems

    AntwortenLöschen
  46. Howdy! Do you use Twitter? I'd like to follow you if that would be ok. I'm definitely enjoying your blog and look forward to new
    updates.

    My blog http://buyvenaproonline.org

    AntwortenLöschen
  47. hi!,I like your writing so a lot! proportion we keep in touch more
    approximately your post on AOL? I require a specialist in this house
    to solve my problem. Maybe that is you! Looking ahead to peer you.



    my page; buy provillus

    AntwortenLöschen
  48. Lastly, the liver performs countless functions that are essential for the proper functioning of the organs that are affected by the process of getting
    get him back quotesed outside. The key to this type of
    diet, unhealthy snacking ruins the hard work and perseverance put in.


    Here is my blog post ... web page

    AntwortenLöschen
  49. It is important to tell your doctor or natural health care practitioner for guidance.
    Having said that liquid colon cleanse is
    abuzz and if you're considering to have a garden bed. Some of the main ingredients in most natural liquid colon cleanse supplements are consumed aspart of a nutritious diet and training program, they help with thebody's natural liquid colon cleanseing and allow for natural gradual
    weight loss. Help the person outline a plan to stop drinking from
    the start date, advises Alcoholism Solutions.

    Here is my homepage :: web page

    AntwortenLöschen
  50. Hi to all, it's really a good for me to pay a quick visit this site, it consists of helpful Information.

    My weblog; virility ex oil reviews

    AntwortenLöschen
  51. Hi there to every one, for the reason that I am really keen of reading this website's post to be updated daily. It consists of good data.

    Here is my web blog buyaciphex.beep.com

    AntwortenLöschen
  52. Great weblog here! Also your website lots up fast! What host are you the
    use of? Can I am getting your associate link for your host?

    I wish my website loaded up as fast as yours lol

    Stop by my web site ... virility ex men growth

    AntwortenLöschen
  53. I am truly happy to read this blog posts which consists of plenty
    of valuable facts, thanks for providing these kinds of statistics.


    Also visit my web blog https://aizawlbazar.com/wiki/index.php?title=Los_Angeles_Exoticwear:_Offering_Women_s_Sexy_Clothing_And_A_Lot_Of

    AntwortenLöschen
  54. Very good article. I will be experiencing some of these issues as well.

    .

    Look at my web site ... bodyweight Exercise

    AntwortenLöschen
  55. This is really interesting, You're a very skilled blogger. I've joined
    your rss feed and look forward to seeking more of your excellent post.
    Also, I've shared your web site in my social networks!

    Check out my homepage :: asthma mist

    AntwortenLöschen